Thursday, November 26, 2009

Honduran election analysis

US Honduras observers across the spectrum are gearing up for this weekend's elections, and the sides are clearly drawn. As the Honduran institutional position seems entrenched in obviating Zelaya and electing a new president, and the position of the rest of Latin America remainins nearly unanimously anti-coup, most US-based analysis this month has focused on the evolving US position towards recognition of the elections.

Here is a sampling of the news analysis coming out from the most clearly drawn angles of the international community this month:
  • Conservatives and anti-Chavistas and it' pushing the "restoration of democracy" and the legitimacy of Sunday's vote. M.A. O'Grady's WSJ column has pretty much read the same way since July, and this Nov. 2 article on the US position is as good a summary as any. This op-ed from the Washington Post offers a little more measured analysis to support the elections and the US position.  
  • International leftists are upset with the US stance on the elections, and some peddling conspiracy theories. An article by 21st Century Socialism's Calvin Tucker the Guardian and this statement from WOLA cover the familiar arguments. Open Society's George Vickers calls the Sunday vote a sham election.
  • Middle of the road analysis suggests that the US should not have given its support tot he elections so quickly but that elections may be a positive step forward. Daniel Altshuler's careful analysis on the local effects of the ongoing standoff offer as much insight into the US role as any of the above mentioned ideological ones. Here's his piece from the HuffPo today. I wrote a piece in CIF a few weeks ago on the importance of cementing the accord that the US successfully brokered, then let drift away.
Looking forward, Boz has gleaned some numbers on voter turnout from the Honduran Electoral Council's website, and offers some solid analysis on what it will take to consider the election a victory for the "coup plotters" or the boycotters. Time and a presumably a lot more coverage next week will tell.

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