It’s been nearly nine months since our last weekly debate, so without further ado we’ll return to posting a debate every Monday.
Over the weekend it was revealed that the head of Colombia’s FARC guerillas died nearly two months ago. A spokesman for the country’s rebels confirmed on Sunday that Manuel “Sureshot” Marulanda died of a heart attack on March 26 and that a new leader was chosen in alias Alfonso Cano.
Despite the change in leadership, it’s very difficult to guess at what their future will be. Militarily the FARC have been severely weakened and politically they’ve made few inroads. As analyst for the Center for International Policy and Plan Colombia and Beyond blogger Adam Isacson said to the AP :
…the group is at a "fork-in-the-road moment".
"For about the past six years, you've seen nothing different, no changes in political strategy," he said. "It's hard to say in what direction the FARC will go but it seems certain there will be a different direction."
Isacson considers it a positive sign that the FARC's leadership did not choose as its new chief a member of the rebels' military wing, which is thought to be more resistant to the idea of talks with the government.
Furthermore, Isacson mentioned on his blog three likely scenarios which could occur in the post-Marulanda period including the complete disintegration of the FARC and further fragmentation of the guerillas.
Regarding the FARC and the future of Colombia's armed conflict there are numerous questions to consider:
- Does the death of Marulanda signal the “final nail in the coffin” of the FARC? (Analyst Vicente Rangel used that quote extensively in interviews with Colombian TV).
- Will the FARC have no other choice but to negotiate with the Colombian government?
- What will be the immediate fate of hundreds of hostages held by the guerillas? (See this week’s poll).
- How will this affect other guerilla groups such as the ELN?
- How will other countries- especially Colombia’s neighbors- react to Marulanda’s death?
So what is your opinion?
Please feel free to leave any comments to the topic as replies in the comments section of this post. If you wish you can also vote on our poll located on the sidebar.
Your opinion counts!
Sources- Plan Colombia and Beyond, The Latin Americanist, MSNBC, BBC News, CNN
Image- ABC News
1 comment:
I agree with Isaacson's analysis but taking it a step further these monster funded by drug trafficking will keep surfacing until drug consumption in the US and Europe is handled in an intelligent way. Study after study have shown (even ONDCP's own study by RAND Corp. "Controlling Cocaine") that source country and eradication are up to 30 times less effective than rehabilitation and education. Criminalization of this public health issue is way down on the list and yet the Bush gang insists on their wars. Please help Colombia. It was a beautiful and peaceful country not too long ago..now we are comparable to Sudan, Iraq etc with 4 million internally displaced because of the so-called War on Drugs
this is my blog http://maritimasjustice.blogspot.com and if you read the most recent debate in Isaacson's blog (the one you link to) you'll find an interesting discussion I had with Bill O'Reilly's mouthpiece.
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